Published January 1, 2025

 Mexico Crime Data Analysis - Key Findings 

1. Overall Violence Metrics:

- Total homicide victims (2018-2024): 194,510

- Total disappearances (2018-2024): 53,566

- Most violent states by casualties:

  - Guanajuato: 20,624 victims

  - Baja California: 16,245 victims

  - State of México: 16,237 victims

2. Regional Trends:

- Chiapas: 237% increase in homicides across 12 priority municipalities

- Sinaloa: Over 400 forced disappearances in less than two months (Sept-Oct 2024)

- Puebla: 70 homicides in October (down from 161 in September)

- Ciudad Juárez: 350+ women murdered since 2023, 108 femicides in 2024 alone

3. Institutional Performance:

- State of México: 96.54% impunity rate for crimes in 2023

- Particularly high impunity rates for:

  - Disappearances: 97.75%

  - Sexual abuse: 100%

  - Feminicides: 76.19%

4. Criminal Evolution:

- Increased tactical sophistication (use of explosives, armored vehicles)

- Growing technological capabilities (GPS jammers, surveillance systems)

- Enhanced coordination in operations

- Targeting of governmental authorities and infrastructure

5. Emerging Trends:

- Escalation in gender-based violence

- Increased targeting of business sectors (45% experienced attempted fraud)

- Growing sophistication in extortion operations

- Rise in coordinated attacks on law enforcement

- Intensification of highway crimes and cargo theft

Most concerning trends:

1. Unprecedented levels of violence against government officials

2. Growing sophistication of criminal organizations

3. High impunity rates enabling continued criminal activities

4. Dramatic increase in gender-based violence

5. Systematic targeting of business sectors

September 2024 witnessed a significant escalation in violence and criminal activity across Mexico, with several states experiencing particularly intense conflicts. The month was marked by a series of high-profile incidents, including mass killings, attacks on government forces, and bold displays of cartel power. The security situation remained volatile, with organized crime groups demonstrating their ability to challenge state authority and disrupt daily life in affected areas.

On September 6, 2024, the U.S. State Department issued a critical advisory for Mexico, highlighting the widespread and common occurrence of violent crimes such as homicide, kidnapping, carjacking, and robbery throughout the country. The advisory explicitly warned against travel to several states:

- Colima* state due to crime and kidnapping

- Guerrero* state due to crime

- Michoacán* state due to crime

- Sinaloa* state due to crime

- Tamaulipas* state due to crime and kidnapping

- Zacatecas* state due to crime and kidnapping

In a significant escalation of cartel-related violence, Culiacán, Sinaloa*, has been gripped by turmoil following the capture of Sinaloa Cartel leader Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada in July. The arrest triggered an internal power struggle within the cartel, resulting in widespread chaos and a death toll of at least 100, with unofficial estimates suggesting even higher casualties.

The violence paralyzed Culiacán for several days, forcing the suspension of public transportation and closure of schools. In response to the escalating situation, on September 30th, local police were withdrawn from the streets after the army confiscated their weapons. This action came just one day after approximately 1,500 Culiacán residents held a protest march through the city's downtown area.

Currently, soldiers, state police, and National Guard units are patrolling the streets of Culiacán, highlighting the severity of the security situation and the government's efforts to restore order in the wake of the cartel's internal conflict.

Other states also experienced significant levels of violence. In Chihuahua, a clash between rival criminal groups near Coronado left nine people dead, including six who were burned in a vehicle. The border city of Ciudad Juárez saw 40 homicides in just the first 16 days of the month, indicating persistently high levels of violence.

In Puebla, a series of disturbing incidents shocked the public. Dismembered human remains were found in two vehicles that had been set on fire in front of a government security complex, accompanied by a threatening message from an organized crime group. Days later, Adela Guadalupe N., the wife of the mayor of San Andrés Calpan and president of the municipal DIF system, was murdered on the Mexico-Puebla highway. Her body was found with multiple gunshot wounds inside her crashed vehicle, having been shot at least 63 times in what appeared to be a targeted assassination.

The month also saw several mass grave discoveries, underlining the ongoing issue of disappearances. In Nayarit, authorities located a clandestine grave containing the remains of at least 11 people in the municipality of Huajicori.

According to Harary Security data, there were approximately 3,619 murders nationwide during September. While this represents a slight decrease from peak levels seen in recent years, it still translates to an average of more than 80 homicides per day. The states of Guanajuato, Michoacán*, Baja California, and Jalisco remained particular hotspots for violence.

* No travel states per U.S. State Department

July 2024 witnessed a continuation of significant security challenges across Mexico, with numerous high-profile incidents

underscoring the persistent threat posed by organized crime and the ongoing struggles of law enforcement to maintain order in

various regions. The month saw a series of assassinations targeting government officials, law enforcement personnel, and

business leaders, as well as mass killings, kidnappings, and brazen attacks in public spaces.

One of the most notable events was the reported arrest of Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada García, co-founder of the Sinaloa Cartel, along with Joaquín Guzmán López, son of "El Chapo" Guzmán, allegedly detained on July 25 near El Paso, Texas. This high-

profile capture prompted increased military deployments to Culiacán, Sinaloa, though conflicting reports about the detention's circumstances raised questions about the operation's details.

The assassination of high-ranking officials remained a serious concern. On July 21, Milton Morales Figueroa, Coordinator

General of the Tactical Strategy and Special Operations Unit of Mexico City's Secretariat of Citizen Security, was killed in Coacalco, State of Mexico. The business community was also targeted, with the murders of Minerva Pérez Castro, president of

the National Chamber of Fishing and Aquaculture Industries, in Ensenada on July 8, and Julio César Almanza Armas, president

of the Federation of Chambers of Commerce in Tamaulipas, in Matamoros on July 30.

Mass killings and public attacks continued to occur with alarming frequency. In Yuriria, Guanajuato, six members of the same

family, including a minor, were executed on July 16. The discovery of five dismembered bodies in an Acapulco supermarket parking lot on July 6 showcased the brutality of cartel violence. The vulnerability of migrants was starkly illustrated by the reported mass kidnapping of over 200 individuals in Chihuahua on July 10.

Organized crime groups demonstrated their continued ability to challenge state authority through sophisticated attacks and territorial control.

Ciudad Juárez remained a violence hotspot, recording 80 murders in July, according to local media counts. The city saw multiple public shootings and executions, including the assassination of attorney Edgar Antonio Castañeda Rodríguez, a public prosecutor at a Carl's Jr. restaurant on July 22.

While some high-profile arrests were made, including that of Antonio Guadalupe Pérez Domínguez, alias "El Escorpión 17", a

leader of the Gulf Cartel, on July 16 in Ciudad Madero, Tamaulipas, overall, the security forces struggled to reduce

violence and organized crime activity significantly. Due to crime and kidnapping risks, the U.S. State Department maintained "Do Not Travel advisories for six Mexican states (Colima, Guerrero, Michoacan, Sinaloa, Tamaulipas, and Zacatecas).

Extortion remained a major issue, particularly impacting sectors like transportation and retail. The forced closure of 191 Oxxo convenience stores by corporate giant FEMSA and seven gas stations in Nuevo Laredo, reported in late July, demonstrated the scale at which criminal groups can disrupt commerce through threats and violence.

June 2024 witnessed persistent security challenges across Mexico, with numerous high-profile incidents underscoring the

complex nature of the country's ongoing struggle with organized crime and violence. While some regions reported slight

decreases in specific crime categories compared to previous months, overall levels of violence, extortion, kidnapping, and armed

robbery remained alarmingly high in many parts of the country.

Several particularly notable events marked the month. In Macuspana, Tabasco, five people were killed and nine injured in a

machete and knife attack at a clandestine bar on June 13th. The victims included customers and staff, with some having their

throats cut. Earlier, on June 9th, in the same city, three decapitated bodies were left in front of a kindergarten along with a

threatening message. In Tila, Chiapas, armed groups terrorized residents for four days starting June 4th, burning homes and

killing at least four people before military forces finally intervened.

A mass killing in La Concordia, Chiapas, on June 26th left 19 dead after an apparent confrontation between rival criminal groups.

The bodies were discovered in and around a dump truck, with some victims wearing tactical gear, pointing to the militarization

of criminal organizations in the region.

In León, Guanajuato, a brutal massacre on June 9th claimed the lives of four women and two children (aged two years and three

months). This horrific act of violence against a single-family highlighted the indiscriminate nature of cartel violence and its

devastating impact on innocent civilians. Authorities later arrested two suspects in connection with the killings on June 16th.

Election day violence on June 2nd included the theft of ballot boxes by armed men in several states. In Puebla, 68 ballot boxes

were burned, and one polling station could not open due to threats. In Michoacán, armed individuals stole election materials

from multiple polling places. In Guerrero, the elected municipal president of Copala, Salvador Villalba Flores, was executed

inside a passenger bus while returning from Mexico City.

On June 16th, Ignacio Montoya Marín, a former mayor of Maravatío, Michoacán, was gunned down in his restaurant. The same

day, Mario Lázaro Mendoza, a newly elected alternate councilman in Jacona, Michoacán, was killed in a shooting that also

injured his pregnant wife.

On June 22nd, Acasio Flores Guerrero, mayor of Malinaltepec, Guerrero, was found dead after being briefly kidnapped by

residents. This incident appeared to be linked to long-standing land disputes in the region, showcasing how local political

conflicts can escalate to deadly violence.

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Throughout the month, Tabasco saw a sharp rise in violence, with multiple mass killings, decapitations, and shootouts between

rival criminal groups. Official statistics from the state showed some crimes decreasing compared to previous years, but homicides

increased by 40% as criminal groups battled for control.

Ciudad Juárez emerged as a particular hotspot for violence in June. The city recorded over 80 homicides in just the first 22 days

of the month, according to local reports. On June 1st alone, six separate homicides were reported, including execution-style

killings and public shootings. On June 11th, a horrific incident saw armed attackers open fire on a family outside their home,

killing a 4-year-old girl and injuring her parents.

The discovery of clandestine graves and dumped bodies continued to be a grim reality in many parts of Mexico. On June 7th,

authorities in Chihuahua made a grim discovery when five bodies were found abandoned along the Libramiento Oriente highway.

The victims, all showing signs of violence, were speculated to potentially be the remains of ride-share drivers who had

disappeared the previous week. In Nicolás Romero, State of Mexico, authorities announced on June 25th the discovery of graves

containing at least ten bodies, allegedly linked to a group that included 15 municipal police officers.

These incidents occurred against a backdrop of persistent criminal activity and security concerns throughout Mexico. Homicides,

extortion, kidnappings, and armed robberies remained significant problems in many regions. While government forces achieved

some successes in arresting high-level cartel figures, the overall security situation showed little sign of improvement in many

parts of the country.

May 2024 witnessed a series of significant security incidents across Mexico, underscoring the ongoing challenges faced by the

nation in combating organized crime and violence. In Cozumel, the arrival of Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) members

in 2021 has led to a dramatic escalation in violence as they battle local criminal groups for control of drug trafficking routes. The

once-peaceful tourist island has seen homicides soar from just one or two per year to 36 in the past three years. The Financial

Times reported that drug cartels now control around one-third of Mexico's territory, the most ever, according to U.S. military

estimates.

Chiapas suffered several massacres as the CJNG and Sinaloa Cartel battled for control of strategic towns near the Guatemala

border. Two catechists were among 11 people from a single family murdered in their homes in Chicomuselo by gunmen trying

to force residents to join their criminal group. An armed attack on the Morena party candidate for Villa Corzo, Robertony Orozco

Aguilar, resulted in 3 deaths. Lucero López Maza, a candidate for municipal president of La Concordia, was executed along with

five others.

Acapulco experienced a particularly bloody month, with 11 murders occurring in a single day amid ongoing turf wars. From

May 20th to 24, an average of six to ten homicides were reported daily, totaling 38 murders in just five days. The discovery of

human remains near the Central Market in Acapulco also grabbed headlines.

Political violence marred the lead-up to the June elections, with at least 27 candidates killed and over 60 attacks on politicians

since campaigning began in March. Data Cívica recorded 134 killings and more than 60 attacks on politicians during the

campaign period, making it the deadliest in recent Mexican history.

In Tabasco, the brutal murder of a 12-year-old boy, Dante Emiliano, shocked the public and sparked outrage. The arrest of a

female suspect linked to his murder shed light on the brutality of crimes affecting children in the country.