Mexico recorded 90 homicide victims in the first 48 hours of 2026 and at least 39 on a single day, January 9. While national data show intentional homicides trending more than 30 percent below the peaks of mid-2024, January demonstrated that the decline coexists with entrenched pockets of extreme violence, sophisticated criminal logistics, and persistent institutional vulnerability across at least a dozen states.

Five developments stood out: 

• First, the Salamanca football-field massacre killed 11 and wounded 12 in front of families, followed days later by a second mass killing in the same community that left seven dead, cementing Guanajuato as the country's most dangerous theater of indiscriminate violence. 

• Second, the kidnapping of 10 workers from a Canadian-owned silver mine in Concordia, Sinaloa, forced the suspension of operations and triggered a federal surge of nearly 2,800 military and security personnel, exposing the direct economic cost of cartel conflict to foreign investment. 

• Third, authorities transferred 37 high-profile cartel figures to U.S. custody and arrested priority targets including Sinaloa-linked "El Mantecas," CJNG plaza boss "El Uber," and Michoacán extortion architect "El Botox," marking one of the most operationally productive months for binational enforcement in recent years. 

• Fourth, the dismantling of a Tren de Aragua cell in Mexico City revealed the deepening reach of transnational Venezuelan organized crime inside the capital.

• Fifth, criminal groups deployed explosive-laden drones in Guerrero, improvised explosive devices in Sinaloa, and a landmine in Michoacán, confirming the escalation toward military-grade tactics by non-state armed groups.

December 2025 closed with 1,503 intentional homicides in Mexico, bringing the annual total to 23,246** murders. The month was defined by five critical security dynamics that underscore persistent challenges facing Mexican authorities.

First, the internal war within the Sinaloa Cartel between Los Chapitos and Los Mayos escalated dramatically. Óscar Medina González, known as El Panu and chief of security for Los Chapitos, was executed inside a restaurant in Mexico City's Zona Rosa. Federal forces captured Pedro Inzunza Noriega, El Sagitario, the second-in-command of the Cártel de Guasave, with a multi-million dollar U.S. reward. Sinaloa experienced unprecedented violence with burned vehicles containing human remains, narco-blockades paralyzing the Mazatlán to Tepic highway, and seizure of over 400 improvised explosive devices for drones alongside ten armored vehicles in Culiacán.

Second, terrorist-style attacks reached new levels with the car bomb in Coahuayana, Michoacán, killing six people, including three municipal police officers and two civilians. In Zacatecas, state police patrols encountered cartel-planted landmines near a cemetery in Luis Moya. Sinaloa registered 25 residential fires in November, 13 of which were classified as intentional arsons linked to intimidation campaigns targeting multiple homes on the same street.

Third, attacks on governmental authority continued undermining state capacity. Sixteen municipal presidents or former mayors were assassinated in 2025, with December adding former Santa Cruz Xoxocotlán mayor Erasmo Rodolfo Medina Ruiz in Oaxaca. In Colima, Subsecretary of Operations Heriberto Morentín Ramírez was ambushed and wounded while driving to work. The Chronus cybercriminal group stole approximately 40 gigabytes of data from Sonora's state finance ministry after breaching the Hermosillo municipal police system. In Chiapas, armed actors attacked a Navy patrol near the Suchiate River, injuring five marines.

Fourth, violence against civilians reached extreme levels. The triple feminicide in Tlapacoyan, Veracruz, saw three women from the same family executed inside their grocery store. In Acapulco, three technology students were dismembered during peak holiday security deployment. Mexico was designated as the non-war country with the highest number of journalists killed in 2025, with nine media professionals murdered. The Red Nacional de Refugios reported 2,375 women murdered from January to October, equivalent to one woman killed every three hours.

Fifth, extortion has been consolidated as one of the most damaging crimes, with federal figures showing a 23 percent increase from 2019 and more than 102,000 complaints by November. In Durango, the arrest of Óscar Limones revealed a systematic extortion scheme targeting the agricultural, livestock, transport, and business sectors. The U.S. Treasury Department identified fuel theft as the most profitable non-drug income source for Mexican cartels, with stolen crude laundered through intermediaries and exported as used oil, ultimately feeding violence across multiple regions.

November 2025 reinforced Mexico’s position among the world’s most criminally affected nations, with attacks on municipal authority, mass-casualty incidents affecting civilians, sustained cartel confrontations in strategic corridors, and deepening institutional challenges in contested territories. The month produced concentrated violence in specific hotspots alongside significant government operations targeting high-value criminal operators and financial networks. Five critical developments dominated the security landscape.

1. The assassination of Uruapan mayor Carlos Manzo during a public Day of the Dead festival triggered mass protests and the deployment of more than 10,000 federal personnel under Plan Michoacán por la Paz y la Justicia.

2. The discovery of more than 400 bags of human remains in clandestine sites near Zapopan, Jalisco, close to a 2026 World Cup venue, underscored persistent problems of enforced disappearances.

3. The internal war within the Sinaloa Cartel between Chapitos and Mayiza factions intensified, producing armed confrontations, explosive drone attacks, and waves of kidnappings affecting both criminal operators and civilians.

4. Coordinated narcobloqueos and vehicle burnings in Michoacán*, Chiapas, Veracruz, and Tabasco demonstrated criminal organizations' capacity to disrupt overland travel through strategic highway blockades and arson attacks.

5. Federal authorities scored significant operational victories, including the killing of Pedro Inzunza Coronel (El Pichón), a second-tier leader indicted in the United States for narcoterrorism and large-scale fentanyl production, alongside major seizures of synthetic drug laboratories and financial freezes targeting casino-based money laundering networks.

Violence targeting governmental authority continued multi-year trends. Beyond the Uruapan mayor's killing, November saw the murder of regidora Guadalupe Urbán Ceballos in San Juan Cacahuatepec, Oaxaca, the assassination of Morena síndica Karina Díaz Hernández in Palizada, Campeche, and the killing of municipal road chief Luis Alberto Rueda Maldonado in Chilpancingo, Guerrero*. Security forces faced systematic attacks, including the ambush and killing of two female traffic officers in El Salto, Jalisco, the execution of a traffic police commander in Sinaloa*, and the resignation of the entire municipal police force in Huixcolotla, Puebla, after three officers were killed by a CJNG-linked cell. At least ten sitting mayors were killed between October 2024 and November 2025, concentrated in Michoacán*, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Puebla, Sinaloa*, and Guerrero*.

Mass-casualty incidents illustrated the exposure of civilian spaces to extreme violence. A mass shooting at a horse-racing event near Parral, Chihuahua, left six dead and eleven wounded, attributed to clashes between La Línea and a Sinaloa Cartel faction. In Tula, Hidalgo, an attack on La Resaka nightclub left six dead, linked to fuel-theft and extortion groups. In Sinaloa*, an explosive device dropped by drone during a quinceañera injured ten people, while a separate shooting at a party left four dead and five wounded. In El Higo, Veracruz, armed men ambushed a family, killing a mother and her eleven-year-old son and seriously injuring two others.

Violence against women remained critical. Guanajuato registered multiple killings, including a woman and her twelve-year-old daughter in León. In Mexicali, dismembered remains of a woman were discovered in an abandoned house. 

International organizations noted Mexico as the world's deadliest country for journalists in a non-war context, with ten killed in 2025 alone and impunity rates around 98 percent.

October 2025 represented a critical period for Mexico's security landscape, marked by escalating violence, sophisticated cartel operations, and persistent institutional challenges. Despite official reports indicating a 32 percent decrease in national homicide rates under the Sheinbaum administration, key hotspots continued to experience severe violence and criminal impunity. The month revealed five critical security dynamics that define Mexico's current risk environment.

1. Intensification of Cartel Warfare in Sinaloa*. The internal conflict between Chapitos and Mayiza factions has generated over 2,100 homicides and hundreds of disappearances since September 2024. This resulted in at least 58 police officer deaths, mass displacement of civilians from drone attacks in Badiraguato, and daily street battles disrupting commerce and civilian life in Culiacán and Mazatlán.

2. Systematic Targeting of Governmental Authority and Economic Leadership. The assassination of Bernardo Bravo, president of the Apatzingán Citrus Growers Association, by the Viagras criminal group exemplified how organized crime eliminates resistance to extortion in lucrative agricultural sectors. The execution of Noé Pérez Urquidi, leader of the Autonomous Confederation of Workers and Employees of Mexico, in a public shopping complex in Salina Cruz, demonstrated that no public space remains safe for officials who resist cartel influence. The murder of Miguel Bahena Solórzano, mayor of Pisaflores, Hidalgo, continued a pattern of political assassinations undermining democratic governance.

3. Endemic Institutional Corruption. The arrest of Leonardo Arturo Leyva, former director of Tabasco state police, for alleged cartel involvement demonstrated corruption at the highest levels of state security. The suspension of 14 security personnel in Baja California for theft of 180 kilograms of seized cocaine revealed systemic vulnerabilities. The detention of 16 police officers in Chiapas for releasing detainees and the arrest of Alejandro Mejía Maza, a former Iguala police officer implicated in the Ayotzinapa case, underscored historical patterns of official complicity with organized crime.

4. Crisis-Level Extortion. Business organizations reported unprecedented economic losses exceeding 21 billion pesos nationwide during 2025. The Confederation of Employers estimated that more than 96 percent of extortion cases remain unreported due to threats and reprisals. Mexico City alone experienced a 65.9 percent increase in reported extortion cases compared to 2024. Criminal groups demonstrated sophisticated methods, including staged traffic accidents, illegal water infrastructure theft, and systematic targeting of transport companies and agricultural producers.

5. Violence Against Vulnerable Populations. Morelos registered five femicides in the first week of October alone, setting historical highs. The discovery of a clandestine grave in Hermosillo, Sonora, containing over 60 bodies, demonstrated the scale of cartel violence and impunity. Multiple mass graves uncovered in Puebla and Veracruz contained dismembered remains with narco-messages. Women and children increasingly became direct targets, evidenced by femicides in Culiacán, attacks during school pickups, and forced recruitment of minors by cartels in Sinaloa* and Jalisco.

Comprehensive Violence Analysis

October 2025 demonstrated that despite national statistical improvements, violence remained acute in specific territorial hotspots where cartel competition and governmental weakness converged. Sinaloa* emerged as the epicenter of sustained high-impact violence, with over 2,100 homicides since September 2024. Daily homicide rates in Culiacán frequently exceeded multiple victims, while Mazatlán experienced a 3.8 percent rise in high-impact crimes despite its status as a major tourist destination. Federal authorities issued temporary lockdowns affecting large urban sectors as armed clashes erupted in residential neighborhoods, commercial districts, and transportation corridors.

The sophistication of violence escalated with explosive-laden drones in Badiraguato. These drone attacks resulted in civilian displacement and created widespread anxiety about the evolution of cartel warfare tactics. Drone attacks on prosecutorial offices in Baja California occurred three times within a single month, demonstrating criminal organizations' willingness to target state judicial infrastructure directly. The U.S. State Department issued multiple security alerts warning about unpredictable street violence involving military-grade weapons and explosive devices.

Mass violence extended to Chihuahua, where entire families were killed in cartel crossfire during the Guachochi massacre. Seven individuals died when rival organizations engaged in territorial disputes without regard for civilian presence. Similar incidents occurred in Veracruz, where funeral attendees became victims when armed groups attacked memorial services, and in Puebla, where bodies bearing narco-messages were deposited in public spaces as territorial markers. The use of public venues for violence served dual purposes of eliminating targets and communicating control to local populations.

Violence against women reached crisis levels, with femicides setting new historical highs in multiple states. Morelos alone recorded five femicides during the first week of October. The targeting of women extended beyond domestic violence to include execution-style killings tied to organized crime and human trafficking networks. Jessica Luna Aguilera, a judge and former political candidate in Veracruz, was assassinated during a school pickup, exemplifying how violence penetrated previously protected social spaces and targeted individuals with official connections.

Mass grave discoveries provided grim evidence of sustained violence and criminal impunity. The clandestine grave in Hermosillo containing over 60 bodies represented one of the larger discoveries during the month. Multiple smaller graves were uncovered in Puebla, Veracruz, and Tamaulipas*, often containing dismembered remains, indicating torture and execution. The frequency of such discoveries, combined with hundreds of active disappearance cases, indicated that official homicide statistics substantially underrepresented the accurate scale of lethal violence.

Public space violence intensified throughout the month. The execution of Argentine singer Fede Dorcaz in Mexico City demonstrated that violence could strike anywhere, even in the capital's supposedly better-controlled areas. Musicians killed in Mexico City suffered torture and burning, reflecting the indiscriminate nature of organized crime violence. Street violence reached civilian populations through crossfire casualties, as armed confrontations erupted in populated areas where innocent bystanders were frequently wounded or killed during cartel battles and government operations.

The recruitment of minors by criminal organizations exacerbated violence and created long-term security challenges. The arrest of a 15-year-old known as El Niño Sicario in Tabasco, responsible for leading kidnapping cells and executing victims, exemplified the conscription of children into cartel operations. Reports from Sinaloa* and Jalisco documented increasing numbers of minors forcibly recruited for criminal activities, creating generational cycles of violence and undermining family and community stability. This trend represented both immediate violence and structural challenges for future security.

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PUBLISHED BY: HARARY SECURITY

SERVICES - CRISIS MANAGEMENT - INTELLIGENCE

Mexico Security & Risk Analysis - September 2025

General Overview

September 2025 represented one of the most volatile months in Mexico's ongoing security crisis, characterized by unprecedented violence, sophisticated criminal operations, and significant government responses across multiple fronts. The month witnessed an intense convergence of factors that underscored the depth and complexity of the nation's security challenges, including persistent warfare between criminal organizations, systematic attacks on governmental authority, massive international law enforcement operations, and the continued erosion of public safety across vast regions of the country.

Five critical developments dominated the security landscape during September. First, the assassination of Sal Ros Reyes, the Security Director of Cosolapa, Oaxaca, while dining with family in Veracruz represented a brazen escalation in attacks against high-ranking public officials, signaling the willingness of criminal organizations to target government authorities in public spaces without regard for collateral consequences. Second, the internal warfare within the Sinaloa Cartel between Los Mayos and Los Chapitos factions intensified dramatically, resulting in over 1,800 deaths and 2,390 disappearances over a twelve-month period, with September marking particularly intense confrontations that forced the closure of schools, businesses, and public services throughout Culiacán and surrounding municipalities. Third, international law enforcement cooperation reached historic levels with the United States Drug Enforcement Administration conducting coordinated mass raids that resulted in 670 arrests targeting the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación, alongside continued designations of major Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations. Fourth, digital extortion and fraud operations exploiting artificial intelligence and social media platforms reached unprecedented national levels, siphoning hundreds of millions of pesos monthly from victims across all demographic sectors. Fifth, the arrest and extradition of Hernán Bermúdez Requena, the former security chief of Tabasco and alleged leader of La Barredora criminal organization, captured in Paraguay through coordinated international operations involving Interpol, Mexican intelligence services, and Paraguayan authorities, marked one of the highest-ranking state officials prosecuted for organized crime in recent history.

National crime statistics revealed overall reported crimes increased by nearly seven percent compared to the previous year, reaching 33.5 million incidents including significant surges in fraud, extortion, and violent offenses. The State of Mexico, Mexico City, and Tlaxcala emerged as particularly hard-hit entities, while Chiapas and Tamaulipas recorded comparatively lower overall crime rates despite experiencing pockets of extreme violence. Three-quarters of the Mexican population reported feeling insecure, and the majority of crimes continued to go unreported, perpetuating what analysts described as a hidden crisis. The chronic underreporting of crimes, estimated at over ninety-nine percent for certain offense categories such as extortion, reinforced perceptions of impunity and weakened institutional credibility.

Federal and state governments mounted significant operations throughout the month, resulting in high-profile arrests of cartel leaders, financial operators, and corrupt officials. High-profile detentions included Genaro Ramírez Hernández, known as El Silencio, considered the number two in CJNG for the Bajío region, and Gustavo, known as El Viejón, leader of La Barredora in Guanajuato. The arrest of Vice Admiral Manuel Roberto Farías Laguna for involvement in massive fuel theft in Tamaulipas represented unprecedented acknowledgment of corruption within the highest ranks of the armed forces. These enforcement actions yielded immediate operational impacts, disrupting command structures and revenue streams for various criminal organizations, though such interventions frequently triggered retaliatory violence and territorial realignments among competing factions.

Discovery of clandestine graves continued at an alarming pace, with seventeen bodies recovered in rural Guanajuato and multiple female victims found in clandestine burial sites across Veracruz. Femicide rates surged in several states, with Sinaloa recording sixteen cases in September alone, representing nearly forty percent of the entire year's total. Veracruz experienced four separate massacres in bars over a twelve-hour period, resulting in multiple deaths and widespread panic. In Colima, an attack at a bakery left six people dead, demonstrating the willingness of criminal organizations to perpetrate mass violence in public venues.

Comprehensive Violence Analysis

The pattern and intensity of violence during September 2025 reflected both continuity with established trends and concerning escalations across multiple dimensions. Sinaloa emerged as the epicenter of lethal violence. The violence stemmed primarily from the ongoing internal conflict within the Sinaloa Cartel, pitting the faction loyal to Ismael Zambada García, known as Los Mayos, against the group aligned with the sons of Joaquín Guzmán Loera, known as Los Chapitos. This fratricidal warfare has fundamentally reshaped the security landscape across northwestern Mexico, with at least 47 police officers killed in Sinaloa since the escalation began in September 2024.

Criminal organizations demonstrated increasing willingness to engage in sustained firefights with security forces, employing heavy weaponry including high-caliber rifles, grenades, and armored vehicles colloquially known as "monstruos" equipped with mounted weapons. The use of explosive devices expanded beyond traditional applications, with criminal groups deploying drones capable of dropping explosives on rival positions and security force installations, particularly in the Tierra Caliente region spanning portions of Michoacán, Jalisco, and Guerrero. This technological adaptation represented a significant escalation in criminal warfare capabilities.

Street-level violence accounted for dozens of deadly incidents across Sinaloa, Michoacán, Guerrero, and Guanajuato. Major battles involved federal and state forces clashing with armed groups in multiple locations. Culiacán, Apatzingán, Chilpancingo, and Coahuayana experienced running gun battles that triggered lockdowns, transport suspension, and cancellation of public events. In Michoacán, deadly assaults on police checkpoints in Uruapan led to canceled Independence Day celebrations. Multiple municipalities in Michoacán were forced to cancel national celebrations due to explicit cartel threats and direct attacks on police.

Public executions and street violence became increasingly common, with multiple incidents of victims killed in broad daylight in busy commercial districts, outside schools, near government offices, and in residential neighborhoods. The brazenness of these attacks reflected both the operational confidence of criminal organizations and the limited capacity of security forces to prevent or immediately respond to incidents. Collateral casualties represented a growing component of overall violence statistics, with bystander deaths becoming a regular outcome of shootouts. The killing of a seven-year-old child during a security force operation on the San Fernando-Reynosa highway in Tamaulipas illustrated the tragic consequences of armed confrontations in civilian spaces.

Highway attacks, ambushes, armed robberies, and blockades remained acute threats, particularly along key corridors in Tamaulipas, Chihuahua, Veracruz, and Michoacán. Multiple public transport and cargo vehicle attacks in central Veracruz within 48 hours resulted in at least eleven killed and several wounded. Routes in Michoacán and Guerrero were intermittently blocked or beset by criminal gangs engaging in extortion and theft, reinforcing the hazardous nature of overland movement. Criminal blockades using hijacked vehicles, spike strips to immobilize security forces, and multi-point ambushes demonstrated sophisticated tactical coordination.

Violence against women reached crisis levels in multiple states during September. Beyond the surge in femicides, gender-based violence manifested across multiple contexts, including domestic settings, public spaces, and as deliberate tactics employed by criminal organizations to intimidate communities. In Chiapas, the discovery of a dismembered woman's body in a public location prompted formal feminicide investigations. The murder of a young nutritionist in Jalisco sparked public protest, highlighting the continued epidemic of violence against women.

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